Opinion polls no longer show mercy to US President Donald Trump, and began to give a clear victory to his Democratic opponent, Joe Biden, at a rate exceeding seven points in the worst case, and US policy experts began talking about the end of the Trump era and the exclusion of the “divine” miracle in which the supporters of the Republican candidate and even Trump himself believed.
The US electoral system adopts “the big voters” and is contrary to the electoral systems in the world.
It does not depend on the results of the direct vote but rather the results of each state’s quota vote separately.
Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton won more than 3 million votes in 2016, but lost the vote by major voters.
The concept of “major electors” is based on granting each state a certain percentage of votes, which is the combination of two senators and then the percentage of members it has in the House of Representatives, and the last percentage is determined by the percentage of the population in each state.
The pool of adult voters is 538, 100 belonging to the Senate and 435 equivalents to the House of Representatives, including three for Washington, which is not a state.
Sparsely populated Montana has three seniors, while California has 55.
The “RealClear Poltec” website has been publishing all the opinion polls since last January until the ones that took place yesterday.
With some limited exceptions, all polls give Joe Biden a victory by more than seven points in total.
The conservative Rasmussen Report was the only site to award the victory to Trump, and it was questionable in his way of working, but yesterday it published a poll awarding the victory to Biden.
After reviewing all the opinion polls and reviewing the results of the states, the electoral map will be as follows:
Democratic candidate Joe Biden included an absolute guarantee and without surprises, 183 votes of the votes of the major voters belong to the states of California, New York, New Jersey, Washington State, New Jersey, New Zealand, Maryland, Oregon and Hawaii.
Almost 85% of the vote is almost guaranteed from states such as Nevada, Virginia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Arizona and others.
And he may lose one or two states, in other words, he will not lose 85 votes from the major voters.
Republican candidate Donald Trump included 60 votes for major voters from states such as Alabama, Mississippi, Kentucky, West Virginia, Adaho, North Dakota, Louisiana, Arkansas and Louisiana.
And there are states that he tends to and may win, and the total voters are 65 and belong to states such as Alaska, Montana, South Dakota, Missouri, Kansas, Utah, Nebraska and Tennessee.
There is a tie and doubts about other states in which the result has not been resolved and the number of major voters is 123, which is Florida, which has always been a republic, then Texas, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio and Georgia.
Trump replies that there is a divine miracle that will help him win the election, but his mathematics belies him.
And the winner needs 279 of the votes of the major electorate to win the presidency of the United States.
In addition to the 180 votes guaranteed, if Biden wins the states in which he is clearly ahead of Trump, he will guarantee 107 votes, for a total of 290 votes.
In order for Trump to win, in addition to the guaranteed states, he must win the states that tend to him, then win the swing states, and then a large state from the states that tend to Biden.
No candidate has ever achieved such a result.
Trump had created a surprise during the previous elections because he succeeded in reducing the gap between him and Hillary Clinton during the last week, but this time this is a scenario that will not be repeated.
Opinion study centers reformed the methodology of opinion polls so as not to make similar mistakes during the last presidential elections, and took into account the enthusiasm of all ethnicities for intensive participation in the vote.
It realizes that if it erred this time, it would lose its credibility and lose a large market, both politically and economically.