The US research center has published a study on Greater China strategy that intends to achieve its goals in 2050.
The RAND Corporation for Research and Development, published a new paper titled “The Great Strategy of China”, in which it addressed two main axes: “How successful China has implemented its strategic goals in 2050, and what will the US-China relations look like in that year?”
The research, which came in 154 pages, is based on the assumption that China and the United States will remain as major competing powers for several decades to come, and that Beijing can achieve its strategy if it succeeds in “diplomacy, economics, science and technology, and military affairs”.
China has set a first stage for this strategy that ends in 2035, and at that time aims to be a global leader in innovation, and possesses a huge soft power, in addition to tightening its internal grip, while aspiring to be in the year 2050 a strong, prosperous, and culturally advanced democracy.
After revising the constitution of the ruling Communist Party.
The Four scenarios
According to the study, China has a distant strategic goal, which is to produce a modern model of governance that emerges from the current system, achieving social stability, economic prosperity, and technological progress.
The study laid out four scenarios, one of which may affect China in the coming decades:
1- “Victorious China”: achieving the strategic goals in full.
2- Emerging China: Achieving some, but not all, of these goals.
3- China stagnant: failure to achieve long-term goals.
4- Shattered China: Many problems threaten the existence of the Communist regime.
The “Rand” center ruled out the realism of the first and fourth scenario, as China cannot achieve all its strategic goals in three decades. By contrast, it is unlikely to witness a collapse at the level of its “strong” and “skilled” Communist regime, which is able to adapt to the changes, According to her description.
Three external tracks
Chinese diplomacy over the next three decades will take one of three tracks:
1- Balanced Partners.
2- Clash with competitors.
3- Variation in trends.
The study said that the first track is achieved provided that there is an American-Chinese consensus, which is related to its occurrence if only the second and third scenario (the stagnation and rise of China) is achieved.
The second track, which is direct collision, especially with the United States, and the pursuit of expelling US forces from the Western Pacific or anywhere else, may be achieved if China triumphs and achieves its strategic goals in the long run.
The last scenario (variance), which is that the two countries move away from each other without cooperation or conflict, linked to China’s failure and preoccupation with its internal differences.
An old approach
According to the study, since the Communist Party came to power in 1949, China has worked with the system of ten or twentieth plans or more, as its first strategic plans between 1949-1977 were revolution and stabilization of government.
The second plan from 1978-1989 is the economic recovery after the success of controlling the country’s joints.
The third plan, in which China worked to build a comprehensive national force, and is called “CNP” in the period between 1990-2003.
Then, renew and develop these strategies.
From these plans, China aims to achieve three important goals: security, sovereignty and development.
The study showed that the current leaders of China, who are from the fifth generation of the Communist Party, are working with a strategy of soft power by promoting national achievements, and entrenching national goals and Chinese values, in order to combat any project calling for democracy, freedom of religion, and human rights.
The People’s Liberation Army “PLA” and the Communist Party of China “CCP” are the ones who plan and implement ideas, to march towards achieving the goals, without there being any role for other civil political parties.
The study touched on China’s intention to undertake major economic reforms in the coming years to address the imbalance that it has, as it comes behind the United States with the second largest global economy, reaching about $ 11.2 trillion in 2016, but the Chinese individual is poor, and even poorer than some of his Asian neighbors.
One of the things that China seeks to solve is the problem of high investment versus less consumption, which reduces its source of economic growth.
The “one-child” law, according to the study, may be an obstacle to achieving the major strategy of China in 2050 if it has not been changed, as the proportion of citizens over 60 years does not exceed 10 percent in 2000, but after the approval of this law, the percentage increased to 15 percent in 2015, it is alarmingly expandable.
The public presence of the state in the Chinese economy may have dire consequences if the private companies are not included in the large investments, as the major companies and banks belong to the state.
Despite this, the research expected that China will continue its economic recovery within the next five years and raise its growth rates.
The study ruled out that China would change its strategy towards attack, as it would remain in a position to defend its interests in the face of Western countries, as it could not advance to confront them.
Among the Chinese plans is to find a “strong army”, which is part of the “Chinese dream,” according to the study, and one of the most prominent reasons for trying to establish it is to repel threats that seek to harm the country’s economy.
Building a US-style superpower would be a desired goal for China in the future, in addition to restructuring most of the country’s military sectors.
The study showed that Chinese President Xi Jinping hopes to restructure the military sectors to achieve goals, most notably “the production of a generation that is completely loyal and capable of protecting the interests of China”.