They are “realistic” warnings about the future of the new corona virus, launched by experts from the University of Minnesota, USA, stating that the epidemic is likely to remain for at least 18 months to two years, infecting 60% to 70% of the world’s population.
In detail, a team of epidemiologists at the University of Minnesota, America, researched the disease and recommended the result that the United States prepare for a worse scenario in a major new wave of the epidemic that comes with autumn and winter, expecting the best days to witness deaths from the virus.
In turn, Mike Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Diseases Research at the University of Minnesota, told CNN that the epidemic will not stop until 60 to 70% of people are affected, confirming that what is being circulated around the end of the epidemic is challenging biology.
The researchers also reported that no one has immunity from a pandemic, because Covid-19 new diseases, and the period they set in anticipation of the end of the epidemic between (18 months and 24) is only pure speculation of a period in which immunity develops in humans.
They pointed out that Covid-19 is closer to a pandemic strain of influenza, noting that the prolonged incubation period, the large and rapid spread, and the emergence of “asymptomatic” cases, are all indications of a high probability of increasing infections, and the person is likely to be in the most severe of infections before the onset Symptoms.
People are supposed to be immune from infection after recovery.
On the other hand, the experts pointed out that governments should stop telling people that the epidemic will soon end, because there are 3 possible scenarios:
The first scenario is that a wave of Covid-19 sweeps in the spring of 2020, followed by a series of repeated smaller waves that occur during the summer and then continue over a period of one to two years, and gradually diminish at some point in 2021.
Analysts say: “The occurrence of these waves may differ geographically and may depend on the measures of closure in place and how they are mitigated depending on the height of the peak of the wave, this scenario may require a periodic re-closure of the procedures over the next year or two”.
The second scenario, and the worst, is that the first wave of the epidemic comes in the spring, followed by a larger wave in the fall or winter and a smaller wave or more than a wave in 2021, noting that this pattern is similar to the pattern seen during the outbreak of the flu in 1918, which killed up to 50 million people worldwide.
However, the second scenario requires the restoration of mitigation measures in the fall to try to reduce the spread of infection and prevent health care systems from falling again.
As for the third: it will be a slow burn for the continuous transmission of the epidemic, that is, the first wave will follow a slow increase of the current infection without a clear pattern of waves.
This third scenario may not require re-mitigation actions, although cases and deaths will continue to occur.
In addition, the experts advised the officials to put in place concrete plans, to restore the mitigation measures, in order to deal with the peak of diseases when they occur.
They also indicated their surprise at the decisions taken by many countries to lift the restrictions of disease control without strict controls, stressing that it is a step that will cost the kidnapping of more lives.
The report pointed out that if the vaccine was discovered, it could help but not quickly, noting that it is possible that the course of the epidemic may also be affected by a vaccine, but it is possible that the vaccine is not available at least say 2021 knowing that the challenges that may arise during the development of a vaccine It is still unknown, which could in turn delay the disease eradication schedule.
It is noteworthy that the newly created Coronavirus has claimed more than 234,000 lives since its outbreak in China months ago, and infected more than 3 million people.