We can say today that what was agreed upon in Sochi 2018 has been applied in its entirety formally, and with it, theoretically, the Turkish military operations ended, the promises went unheeded, and the military operations of the regime also ended.
The Turkish foreign minister said today that “the south of the international route M4 will be subject to Russian control and the north will be under our control” which means that the southern regions that are still under the control of the factions are by virtue of the fallen under the Russian (regular) presence and this is also considered part of the Sochi Agreement in one way or another .
Erdogan, for his part, said that the ceasefire is going well although it is temporary and that he hopes it will turn into a permanent one, which means an explicit retreat from his vow to expel the regime from the areas he came to if he did not retreat on his own, which means that the “Spring Shield” operation is over.
There is no explicit Turkish reference to the fate of hundreds of thousands of IDPs who have been displaced due to the progress of the regime in Idlib, and theoretically it can be considered that what awaits them is temporary housing that are not only “solid tents” previously promised by the Turkish president or return to their responsibility to their areas that controlled It has a system, and the accompanying “reconciliation” that everyone knows will end (death – arrest – army market).
It is not smart to say that what happened is expected, many people expected this as a matter of “getting used to slapping this cheek”, as the regime (Russia) had never retreated from areas they controlled and there was no reason for them to retreat here, especially in light of the existence of an agreement Previously, many people continued to deny it until it became a reality before them today.
The most pessimistic scenarios say that what will happen next is a few months of calm, after which the violations will return and the gnawing of the areas until a border strip remains only containing the border camps besides the olive branch and the Euphrates Shield, so that the regime can devote after that to the Kurdish units (SDF) and no knowledge of who will prevail In light of the ambiguity of the American position.
The foregoing needs about 15 months, which is the remainder of the upcoming presidential elections, in which Bashar Al Assad will either be neutralized by the Russians and replaced with another person and maintain the system, or enhance his position and rehabilitate his system and keep him as president.